Norfolk, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

745
FXUS63 KOAX 020545
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1145 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog developing overnight, some of which could be
  dense, limiting visibilities to less than half a mile.

- Periodic, low precipitation chances (15-30%) Monday night
  through Tuesday night. A wintry mix could fall at times, but
  is currently favored to remain light with little to no impact.

- Mild temperatures stick around this week, with highs in the
  30s and 40s through Wednesday and 40s and 50s from Thursday
  through Saturday. These warmer temperatures could allow river
  ice to break up and move, increasing the risk of ice jams.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Tonight and Monday:

Overnight snowfall is quickly disappearing this afternoon as
temperatures have warmed into the 40s as of 2 PM. A shield of
low clouds is gradually overspreading northeast NE and western
IA with latest model data suggesting the clouds will remain in
the same general vicinity overnight. To the south of the clouds
and in locations of recent snow melt, decreasing winds will
allow for fog formation late tonight into Monday morning with
visibilities falling below a half mile at some locations.

The morning fog and lingering clouds will slow heating Monday
with highs topping out in the 30s to low 40s.


Monday night through Wednesday:

The 12z global models remain in good agreement in the
progression of a shortwave trough through the mid-MO Valley
Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed by additional
vorticity maxima from Tuesday into Wednesday. Associated QPF
fields remain light and spotty in our area, which is consistent
with the low PoPs of 15-30% indicated in the forecast. Forecast
soundings show periods of deepening saturation in the lowest
5-10 kft, but below the level of ice introduction. As such, the
potential will exist for a wintry mix to fall during periods
when boundary-layer temperatures remain below freezing. However,
any precipitation is expected to remain light and not cause an
impact to travel.

Daytime highs could be limited by cloud cover in some areas with
readings in the 30s Tuesday, and 30s to low 40s and Wednesday.


Thursday through Saturday:

An amplified mid-level ridge positioned over the western U.S.
Thursday morning is forecast to weaken while shifting into the
central U.S. this weekend. In the low levels, westerly,
downslope winds Thursday will contribute to considerably warmer
temperatures with highs in the 50s forecast at many locations.
The models indicate a front moving through the area Friday with
highs mainly in the 40s. Similar conditions are expected
Saturday.

The warmer daytime temperatures will begin to affect ice
cover/depth on area rivers. However, with overnight lows
remaining below freezing and no rain in the forecast, the ice
break up could be a gradual process.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Main concern for the fist half of the TAF period continues to be
the possibility for fog, which the latest guidance suggests is
becoming less likely. Temperatures will still tank along a line
from KOFK to KLNK, where our chances for dense fog are highest
(20-30% chance), with areas of patchy fog in between. To the
northeast near KOMA, the deck of MVFR ceilings will continue to
move eastward slowly, and should leave KOMA VFR near 08z or
shortly after. Winds will be very light overnight, and waffle in
direction some, generally out of the west. After 12z tomorrow
morning, winds will shift east-southeasterly while staying
light, with additional bouts of MVFR ceilings affecting KOMA
and KOFK until 18-21z while KLNK stays VFR. Towards the end of
the TAF period, another chance at some light snow/drizzle, but
we`re waiting for a steady signal before including it in the
TAFs.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Petersen